Intent to visit Europe among long-haul travellers fell from 38% to 34% this autumn, yet confirmed bookings rose to 52% of intenders, up from 42%. That's the core finding of the Long-Haul Travel Barometer 3/2026, published by the European Travel Commission (ETC) and Interrail, covering September to December travel plans across seven overseas markets: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Japan, South Korea and the United States.

The funnel is narrowing at the top but tightening at the bottom. Half of respondents plan any overseas trip between September and December, down from 55% last year. Because intention to visit Europe fell at roughly the same rate, Europe still captures about two-thirds of total long-haul intent.

The takeaway: fewer people are coming, but more of them have already paid for flights.

Which markets moved?

China still leads at 54% planning a European trip, though that's 15 points lower than a year ago — a continuation of the post-pandemic normalisation recorded over two years. Brazil holds at 45%, broadly flat. South Korea is the only riser, from 33% to 36%, though the change isn't statistically significant.

Canada softened to 30%. Australia sits at 27%, with part of the decline possibly reflecting a new, more income-balanced sample. The US also stands at 27%. Japan trails at 12%.

Commitment is most visible in China: 37% of respondents there have already booked tickets, against 33% last autumn and 26% in autumn 2019.

The takeaway: operators can't read the averages — the seven markets are moving in different directions.

What's holding people back?

Cost remains the top barrier, but its grip is loosening. Among those not planning a long-haul trip at all, 44% cite high travel costs, down five percentage points. Among long-haul travellers choosing destinations outside Europe, 30% name cost as the barrier, down 12 points; 23% simply prefer another region and 16% cite limited holiday time.

Geopolitics barely registers: 7% mention the war in Ukraine, 6% conflict in the Middle East.

The takeaway: price sensitivity is easing, which gives airlines and hoteliers slightly more pricing room than a year ago.

Who's actually arriving?

Some 53% of prospective autumn visitors will be in Europe for the first time, peaking at 61% among Chinese travellers and 57% among Americans. First-timers lean on full packages (52%), while repeat visitors organise independently. Leisure dominates at 73%, most stays run one to two weeks, and the largest spending group budgets €100–€200 per person per day.

Only 34% plan to visit a single country; 66% will combine two or more, averaging 2.7 countries per itinerary — 3.3 among Australians. Southern and Mediterranean Europe remains the main draw at 67%, with France the most-mentioned country (52%), ahead of Italy (35%) and Spain (25%).

Transport splits evenly: low-cost airlines 45%, full-service carriers 44%, rail passes 40%, point-to-point rail tickets 39%.

The takeaway: the autumn long-haul visitor is likely a first-timer on a multi-country package, moving through the Mediterranean.

Does Europe read as one destination?

For 39% of travellers — and 43% of first-time visitors — Europe functions as a single destination. The perception is strongest among Japanese (68%) and South Korean (51%) respondents, driven by cross-border connectivity, the common currency and the shared visa framework.

ETC President Miguel Sanz said: "Though long-haul travel intention may be cooling, Europe's appeal remains strong. Newcomers and repeat travellers plan to visit in almost equal measure, and most want to explore several countries in one trip."

He added that "collaborative work between destinations therefore stands at the heart of Brand Destination Europe, as ease of travel allows visitors to appreciate the unified diversity of our continent."

Note on method: this wave uses a new data collection panel. The ETC says long-term trends were reviewed across all markets and are consistent with previous waves.

The next barometer wave will show whether the smaller-but-firmer autumn audience carries into winter booking cycles — and whether China's two-year glide continues.